WMO Warns of Strong El Niño Threat as Kenya Faces Flood Risk

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there is an 80 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026, increasing the risk of extreme weather, higher temperatures and flooding in several regions, including parts of Africa.

According to the WMO’s climate update released on 2 June, El Niño is expected to continue into November and could reach moderate to strong intensity. The climate pattern is associated with unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can alter weather conditions around the world.

Scientists report that significant subsurface warming is already present across parts of the Pacific, including areas near Indonesia, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea. This warming is expected to raise surface temperatures and contribute to above-average global temperatures in the coming months. 

Seasonal forecasts indicate that most regions are likely to experience warmer-than-normal conditions, increasing the risk of heat-related impacts. The WMO warns that eastern and southern Africa could see major changes in rainfall patterns. 

The Horn of Africa, including Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and South Sudan, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall. While increased rainfall may help ease drought conditions in some areas, it also raises the risk of flooding, landslides and damage to crops and infrastructure.

These impacts could threaten food security and force vulnerable communities from their homes. Similar consequences have been recorded during previous El Niño events across the region.

Kenya has experienced severe effects from El Niño in the past. The 1997–1998 event caused widespread flooding, landslides and significant damage to infrastructure across the country. More recently, a strong El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole during 2023 and 2024 led to extensive flooding that displaced hundreds of thousands of people and damaged homes, roads and livelihoods.

Heavy rainfall has already affected parts of Kenya in 2026. Floodwaters have stranded vehicles in Nairobi, while roads have been blocked in areas including Iten and Syokimau, highlighting the potential risks associated with further heavy rainfall.

The WMO said the latest rainfall outlook is consistent with typical El Niño conditions, which often produce extreme weather patterns. Some regions are likely to experience excessive rainfall, while others may face drier conditions and drought.

The contrasting impacts present challenges for governments and communities preparing for the months ahead. Authorities may need to respond to both flood risks and water shortages, depending on local conditions. Experts warn that existing vulnerabilities, including fragile infrastructure and limited resources, could increase the humanitarian impact of severe weather events.

With the possibility of a significant El Niño developing later this year, governments across affected regions are being urged to strengthen preparedness measures, protect critical infrastructure and support communities at risk from extreme weather.