Ruto Leads National Popularity Poll, Babu Owino Favoured to Succeed Raila — Infotrak

President William Ruto would win an election held today, according to a new Infotrak survey that places him ahead of a divided opposition.

The poll, conducted in late December, shows Dr Ruto with 28 percent support among voters. His closest rival, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, records 13 per cent, followed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 12 percent.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino stands at 7 percent, former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua at 5 percent, while Martha Karua and former Chief Justice David Maraga each register 2 percent. Several other aspirants, including governors Gladys Wanga and George Natembeya, attract about 1 per ent support. More than 25 percent of respondents remain undecided.

Party support reflects similar shifts. President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leads with 23 per cent, ahead of Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 19 per cent. This is the first time UDA has overtaken ODM in an Infotrak poll. Gachagua’s newly formed Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) records 6 per cent, while Jubilee stands at 5 percent.

Regional patterns continue to shape voter preferences. Ruto commands strong backing in North Eastern, where he records 76 percent support, and maintains a solid lead in Rift Valley at 42 percent. He also tops the rankings in Nyanza, Coast and Western regions, though by narrower margins. Matiang’i’s support is strongest in Nyanza and parts of Eastern, while Musyoka leads in Eastern with 20 percent.

The survey also examines leadership succession within the Luo community following Raila Odinga’s exit from frontline politics. Babu Owino emerges as the leading figure with 33 percent support. Oburu Odinga follows at 10 percent, while Gladys Wanga, James Orengo, Opiyo Wandayi, Raymond Omollo and Winnie Odinga each post single-digit figures. A further 37 percent of respondents remain undecided.

On coalition alignments, Ruto’s broad-based government attracts 32 percent support. The United Opposition grouping led by Gachagua, Musyoka, Karua and Eugene Wamalwa follows at 22 percent. The Kenya Moja alliance, associated with Natembeya, Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, Gathoni Wamuchomba and Ndindi Nyoro, records 17 percent. About 29 percent of respondents say they do not identify with any coalition.

Economic pressures dominate public concerns. The cost of living is cited by 46 percent of respondents as the most pressing issue. Corruption and healthcare follow at 27 percent, education at 26 percent, and youth unemployment at 25 percent. Other priorities include leadership integrity, economic management and security.

The Infotrak survey interviewed 1,000 respondents across all 47 counties and has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.