President Uhuru to Defeat Raila in First Round Voting, Latest CAP Opinion Poll Reveals

A newly released opinion poll indicates that assuming a voter turnout of 85 per cent, President Uhuru Kenyatta will clinch the presidency in the first round of voting against Raila Odinga by garnering 54 per cent of the total votes cast.

A survey conducted by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) between July 28th and August 1st shows that National Super Alliance presidential candidate Raila Odinga would garner 43 per cent of the presidential vote, CAP head of operations Abel Oyieyo explained on Wednesday.

“Three per cent of the people who responded were undecided or they preferred another candidate such as Abduba Dida and Ekuru Aukot. It is not really about campaigns at this point but about getting closer to elections and voters are making up their mind most of them thinking it’s either going to be Kenyatta or Odinga,” Oyieyo stated while releasing the finding at a Nairobi hotel.

9,995 respondents sampled across the country through a random multistage stratified methodology were interviewed, with President Kenyatta lead in Rift Valley and Eastern increasing significantly over the past few weeks.

“In nearly all the regions, the two leading candidates maintained their support where Raila maintained but the president's support in Rift Valley has moved from 66 per cent in our previous opinion poll to 69 per cent – a shift of three per cent in the region,” Oyieyo said.

Kenyatta is leading in Central, North Eastern, and Eastern with approval ratings of 95, 64 and 61 per cent respectively.

The coast region is a battleground, with Odinga having a rating of 50 per cent over Uhuru's 44 per cent.

Odinga and Kenyatta share the spoils at 52 and 47 per cent respectively in vote-rich Nairobi County.